Finance

OIL:  BRENT - 85.57-1.82 WTI - 80.34-1.25
COMEX:  GOLD - 1811.40-0.04 SILVER - 23.36+2.14
COMEX:  PLATINUM - 1025.30-2.65
LME:  ALUMINIUM - 2545.50+2.43 COPPER - 8450.00+1.37
LME:  NICKEL - 28862.00+4.57 TIN - 23255.00-0.33
LME:  LEAD - 2202.50+1.33 ZINC - 3079.00-0.02
FOREX:  USD/JPY - 134.30-0.64 EUR/GBP - 1.0538+0.17
FOREX:  EUR/USD - 1.0538+0.17 GBP/USD - 1.2287+0.35
STOCKS RUS:  RTSI - 1107.55-1.43
STOCKS US: DOW JONES - 34429.88+0.10 NASDAQ - 11461.50-0.18
STOCKS US: S&P 500 - 4071.70-0.12
STOCKS JAPAN:  NIKKEI - 27777.90-1.59 TOPIX - 1953.98-1.64
STOCKS CHINA:  HANG SENG - 18675.35-0.33 SSEC - 3156.14-0.29
STOCKS EUR:  FTSE100 - 7556.23-0.03 CAC40 - 6742.25-0.17
STOCKS EUR:  DAX - 14529.39+0.27
02/12/2022  CBA:  USD - 395.20-0.15 GBP - 485.11+5.08
02/12/2022  CBA:  EURO - 416.07+4.15
02/12/2022  CBA:  GOLD - 22910.78+622.40 SILVER - 281.25+7.21
December, 2022
December 2022
M T W T F S S
 1234
567891011
12131415161718
19202122232425
262728293031  
EBRD raises growth forecast, warns of threats
04/11/2021 19:33 0.1K

EBRD raises growth forecast, warns of threats

High commodity prices exert inflationary pressures as Covid-19 cases rise

  • EBRD raises growth forecast for its regions for 2021 to 5.5 per cent
  • Output expanded by 6.4 per cent in first half of 2021
  • Inflationary pressures, supply chain disruptions and spike in new infections impact recovery

The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) has raised its forecast for its regions for 2021 to 5.5 per cent in its latest Regional Economic Prospects report, published today.

While this represents an upward revision of 1.3 percentage points over its June forecast following a strong performance in the first half of the year, the Bank warns of serious threats ahead.

High commodity and energy prices, tight labour markets, supply chain disruption and currency depreciations in some EBRD economies have begun to push up inflation even before the latest spike in Covid-19 infection cases. On average, inflation in the EBRD regions exceeded its end-2019 levels by 3 percentage points in September 2021. In response, a number of central banks in the EBRD regions have raised policy interest rates.

In some EBRD economies tight labour markets added to inflationary pressures with a strong rebound in vacancies in lower-medium skilled occupations. In other economies, considerable slack in labour markets remains. Unemployment increased by 1.4 percentage points on average between February and August 2020, while labour force participation fell by half a percentage point on average.

EBRD Chief Economist Beata Javorcik said: “This is a bittersweet recovery. The first half of 2021 brought a robust rebound. But we are now seeing growing cause for concern. While high commodity prices benefit exporters, they weigh heavily on the trade balances of importers. The supply of affordable energy as we enter the winter period is becoming a serious worry, especially since governments’ headroom is limited.”

Following large stimulus packages in response to the Covid-19 crisis, public debt in the EBRD regions has increased by an average of 13 percentage points of GDP since the end of 2019. While borrowing costs remain below their pre-crisis levels in most economies, they have risen sharply in some countries.

The recovery gathered pace in the EBRD regions in the first half of 2021 when output grew by 6.3 per cent year-on-year. Mobility recovered earlier than in other parts of the world, while industrial production and retail sales rebounded. Exports of goods and services increased despite temporary supply chain disruptions. Remittances also grew in the second quarter of 2021, in some cases surpassing 2019 levels. Tourist arrivals exceeded expectations, but remained significantly below their 2019 levels in most EBRD economies.

In 2022, as economies recover, growth is expected to moderate to 3.8 per cent in the EBRD regions. This is 0.1 percentage point lower than expected in June 2021. However, forecasts are subject to high uncertainty, reflecting risks associated with the future path of Covid-19, possible worsening of external conditions and weaker growth in trading partners.

More widespread inflationary concerns may bring forward policy tightening in advanced economies, making debt burdens more expensive to service, the report warns. Travel restrictions and lingering fears of contagion continue to weigh on the outlook for the tourism sector. While bankruptcies have so far remained contained, further vulnerabilities may surface once policy support is reduced.

Output in central Europe and the Baltic states is expected to increase by 5.2 per cent in 2021 and 4.7 per cent in 2022, reflecting better-than-expected results in the first half of 2021, although supply chain disruptions weighed on growth in some economies.

In the south-eastern European Union GDP is expected to grow by 6.7 per cent in 2021 and 4.3 per cent in 2022. These figures reflect a significant upward revision to growth in Greece, although tourist arrivals remain below their 2019 levels.

Output in the Western Balkans is expected to grow by 6.4 per cent in 2021 and 4 per cent in 2022. The region saw significant upward revisions, reflecting better-than-expected performance in the first half of the year, including in the tourism sector, as well as strong export demand from the EU market.

Output in Russia is expected to grow by 4.3 per cent in 2021 and 3 per cent in 2022, boosted by public spending programmes facilitated by higher commodity revenues.

In eastern Europe and the Caucasus output is expected to grow by 3.6 per cent in 2021 and 2.9 per cent in 2022, reflecting strong results in the first half of the year, although there are signs of momentum slowing in the third quarter.

Economies in Central Asia are expected to grow by 4.9 per cent in 2021 and 4.8 per cent in 2022 on the back of higher commodity prices and recovering remittances.

Turkey’s economy is expected to grow by 9 per cent in 2021 and 3.5 per cent in 2022, supported by a post-lockdown rebound in domestic demand and strong exports benefiting from currency depreciation. Risks to macroeconomic stability have, however, increased.

Output in the southern and eastern Mediterranean is expected to grow by 4.2 per cent in 2021 and 4.4 per cent in 2022, reflecting strong pick-up in economic activity in Egypt in particular in the second quarter of 2021.

EBRD raises growth forecast, warns of threats 1

Ucom - high speed internet connection starting at AMD 6,500
AMD Rates
10:30 02/12 Buy Sell
AMD / USD 395.00 397.00
AMD / EUR 409.00 418.00
AMD / RUR 6.30 6.55
dollars
dollars
CBA Rates
02/12/2022
USD / AMD
395.20
-0.15%
EUR / AMD
416.07
+4.15%
RUR / AMD
6.39
-0.07%
GBP / AMD
485.11
+5.08%
Cryptocurrencies
10:30 02/12
BTC/AMD
6,702,282
-0.75%
BTC/USD
16952.78
-0.87%
ETH/USD
1275.38
-0.64%
BCH/USD
110.03
-1.99%
XRP/USD
0.389717
-2.52%
LTC/USD
76.63
-0.67%
BNB/USD
289.23
-3.29%
DOGE/USD
0.099324
-3.67%
ETH/BTC
0.07522679
+0.23%
BCH/BTC
0.006490193
-1.12%
XRP/BTC
0.000022987
-1.66%
LTC/BTC
0.004520066
+0.21%
BNB/BTC
0.017059834
-2.44%
DOGE/BTC
0.000005859
-2.82%
CBA Metals
02/12/2022
dram / gram
Gold
22910.78
+622.40%
Silver
281.25
+7.21%
FOREX
11:06 03/12
EUR/USD
1.0538
+0.17%
GBP/USD
1.2287
+0.35%
USD/JPY
134.30
-0.64%
EUR/GBP
0.857
-0.23%
Oil
11:06 03/12
$ / barrel
Brent
85.57
-1.82%
Light Sweet
80.34
-1.25%
COMEX
11:06 03/12
$ / tr. oz
Gold
1811.40
-0.04%
Silver
23.36
+2.14%
Platinum
1025.30
-2.65%
LME / 3M
11:06 03/12
$ / tonne
Aluminium
2545.50
+2.43%
Copper
8450.00
+1.37%
Nickel
28862.00
+4.57%
Tin
23255.00
-0.33%
Lead
2202.50
+1.33%
Zinc
3079.00
-0.02%
Molybdenum
44841.97
+1.09%
Cobalt
51955.00
+0.00%
Indexes
11:06 03/12
point
Dow Jones
34429.88
+0.10%
S&P 500
4071.70
-0.12%
NASDAQ
11461.50
-0.18%
FTSE
7556.23
-0.03%
CAC 40
6742.25
-0.17%
DAX
14529.39
+0.27%
RTSI
1107.55
-1.43%
Nikkei
27777.90
-1.59%
Topix
1953.98
-1.64%
Hang Seng
18675.35
-0.33%
SSEC
3156.14
-0.29%
CBA Interest Rates
26/03/2020
Refinancing
Refinancing Rate
9.25
+0.00%
Lombard Repo
Lombard Repo Rate
10.75
+0.00%
Deposit
Deposit Rate
7.75
+0.00%
Macroeconomy
10/2022
CEA
Coefficient of Economic Activity
+8.90%
Ind. Prod. 3
Volume of Industrial Production
2,128.5
+9.9%
Export 1
Export
4,129.4
+71.2%
Import 1
Import
6,755.8
+63.5%
CPI
Consumer price index
+8.70
Avg. Salary 2
Average salary
226,621
+14.0%
Services 3
Volume of services
2,074.3
+27.90%
Construction 3
Volume of construction
360,764
+14.4%
1 - mln AMD, 2 - AMD, 3 - bln AMD